In December last year, global recession seemed inevitable. The mood in the world economy has however brightened considerably since then. Stronger global growth prospects, falling inflation and less hawkish central banks are contributing to strong market developments. But is this too good to be true? Well, most likely. Inflation has become broad based and interest rates need to go higher than markets expect, especially in the U.S. This might trigger market repricing globally, bringing both risky assets and bond prices back down during this spring.
Read moreThe world economy is facing headwinds. The US economy is in good shape to weather the turbulence. Much is in the hands of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to bring inflation down. Can the Fed steer the economy towards a better future through the narrow corridor, without either driving the economy into a deep recession or letting the inflation genie out of the bottle?
Read moreRampant inflation has forced central banks to tighten monetary policy much faster than previously anticipated. Growth momentum in the global economy is losing steam after rapid rebound from the depths of the pandemic. The war in Ukraine continues and the looming energy crisis threatens to push the European economies over the cliff. Will hawkish central banks drive economies into a recession, and what’s ahead for the markets?
Read moreSurging inflation and hawkish central banks have sent markets lower and ignited recession fears. Are central banks pushing economies into recession?
Read moreThe economic consequences of war, persistent inflation and renewed worries about supply chain problems due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, all fuel uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Monetary policy tightening is about to start, and bond yields have soared since the start of the year. Stock market volatility has increased, but stocks are holding up well despite the global headwinds. Can this fairly benign market development continue?
Read moreInterest rates are close to zero, all asset valuations are high and inflation is running hot. How does the macroeconomic environment look like in 2022? Will it continue to be supportive for risk-taking in the markets? What’s ahead of us in 2022?
Read moreGlobal growth momentum is losing steam and inflation is at levels last seen in 1990s. Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, the third quarter earnings season surprised on the upside and stock markets are at record highs. Inflation has, however, turned out to be more persistent than central banks expected. Can inflation be tamed without turbulence in the financial markets and in the real economy?
Read moreStagflationary tendencies are gaining strength in the global economy after many decades. 1970s was an era of weak economic growth, rampant inflation and lousy stock market performance. Luckily many things have changed since the 1970s.
Read moreMajor central banks are about to start unwinding unconventional support measures launched during the COVID pandemic. The monetary policy normalization process will be slow. What kind of risks does the process pose to investors?
Read moreEarnings optimism have pushed equity prices higher and volatility indicators are at the low levels. The second quarter displayed strong GDP growth around the developed world as economies were reopening after the lockdowns and the vaccination programs gathered pace. How strong support from the macroeconomy to corporate earnings one can expect during the coming quarters? And what roles might fiscal and monetary policies play?
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